The recession has severely dampened growth rates in retail. The chart below shows the growth rate for consumer retail expenditure. From 2007 onwards we have two lines. The red line shows the actual growth rate and, obviously, accounts for the recession and downturn over this period. The blue line shows our forecast for what would have happened to retail spending if the recession had not hit.
Over the 2007-12 period, actual spending grew by 7.3% in total. However, if the recession had not hit then spending is likely to have grown by 14%.
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