The home-related and entertainment sectors are set to struggle over the next five years
Although overall retail growth will be more subdued over the next five years, totalling 14.3% (including inflation) across the 2013-17 period, there is significant variation by retail sector.
Food & grocery
As a needs driven market, the food and grocery sector will be relatively robust. Much of this is down to food price inflation. Indeed, we believe volumes in food will be negative this year and flat next year, but this is offset by a strong inflationary trend in the market.
Health & beauty
Health and beauty and clothing will also see solid levels of growth. Both have a high needs-based element, which makes cutting volume difficult. However, both also allow consumers to indulge and treat themselves in a way that is relatively low cost.
The sectors related to the housing market, such as furniture and electricals, will see below average growth.
Music, film and books
However, entertainment sectors – music and films and books – will suffer the most as they continue to migrate away from physical product to digital media and subscription based services.